By Richard D Smallwood

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D. projects where there are elements of novelty; work to be carried out which has not been attempted before. In construction projects where the durations of jobs may be affected by the weather. This uncertainty clearly complicates the planning problem. The principal problem facing the project planners can be simply stated; it is to decide upon a reasonable and achievable target project completion time, based on reasonable and achievable activity durations. PERT was the first method which purported to handle this problem and was first put forward 2 by Malcolm et al.

C H A P M A N , D . F. COOPER and P. L. MORRISON (1984) Controlled interval addition of dependent probabilistic variables, paper in progress. C. B. CHAPMAN and D . F. C O O P E R (1985) Identification and estimation of risk: issues and illustrations from North Sea and Arctic engineering projects, paper to be published in the proceedings of the 7th IFAC/IFORS Symposium on Identification and System Parameter Estimation, York, July 1985. C. B. C H A P M A N and D . F. COOPER Understanding Risk, book in preparation.

The linear programming problem can be solved using the simplex method but a much more 17 18 efficient algorithm has been developed by Fulkerson (1961) and also by Kelley (1961). The method uses the dual of the linear programme described above and it is shown that a flow interpretation can be given to it. The original network is replaced by a flow network, which has two paths for each original acitivity. A labelling procedure can then be adopted, starting from the 'normal solution', to derive the minimum project cost/time relationship.

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