By Richard Mesic Thomas Hamilton, RAND

Easy video game conception is used to narrate U.S. Air strength operations to their likey results on enemy habit.

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Additional info for A Simple Game-Theoretic Approach to Suppression of Enemy Defenses and Other Time Critical Target Analyses

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Both Red and Blue would use a mixed strategy in this game. , counterforce). 39 Briefing Outline • Simple game theory • Application to data from recent Suppressor runs • Application to attacks on moving fielded forces • Application to defense against TBMs • Consideration of multiple engagements 40 0403 R We now consider the nature of conflicts consisting of multiple, serial engagements. For this section of the document, the mathematics becomes a little more involved, although nothing that we present here is in any way new or controversial.

Capabilities, especially with respect to attacks on time critical targets, will often have the effect of causing the enemy to become paralyzed. The right move will be no move. The right TCT systems for the United States are the ones that produce this effect. These are not necessarily the ones that produce the highest enemy casualties in traditional modeling, in which enemy CONOPs are fixed. The anticipated duration of a conflict is very important to understanding the effectiveness of CONOPs. 53 0403 R This document contains analysis of a variety of important military situations.

The details of the model are not important to this argument. We are simply examining the broad, qualitative nature of the results. 22 Measures of Effectiveness Enemy targets killed per hour Potential targets detected per hour Percent exposed enemy killed Percent exposed enemy detected False targets killed per hour Number targets/hour investigated by UAV Number targets/hour investigated by fighter 23 0403 R Our model calculates several measures of effectiveness. The fundamental one is enemy targets killed per hour.

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