By Prof., Ph D Marc Ivaldi (auth.)

Using panel information of person corporations drawn from French surveys, a structural research is built to review the formation of creation plans and the rationality of expectancies. The construction determination of a company is outlined because the optimum resolution of a dynamic stochastic optimization challenge. The empirical paintings quantities to getting better the structural parameters characterizing the version of the company from estimates of the derived choice rule. The previous research of construction plans is predicated at the assumption that businesses are rational. To justify this assumption, direct checks provide proof that the Rational expectancies speculation will not be rejected for volume variables.

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Extra info for A Structural Analysis of Expectation Formation: Based on Business Surveys of French Manufacturing Industry

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Now, using survey data technical problems to because estimate they are economic models qualitative. , whether it is up,. down, or no change. The solution proposed here is to adopt a general setting, the latent variable model for discrete data. In addition to providing a satisfactory approach for the treatment of models based on ordinal variables, the use of errors-in-1atent-variab1e models theoretical model ensures the and the econometric model: coherence between the In particular, the 22 rationality assumption underlying the former can be clearly imposed in the statistical model.

Optimal behavior is production smoothing. demand and a cost shock. In this sense, the Let us consider now both a Then: This shows that firms adjust their production fully as (because g2 is an increasing function of 81) 81 increases and that the variability of production is increased due to the presence of the cost shock. Similar conclusions are already contained in the models studied by Blinder [1986] and by Koenig and Nerlove [1986]. l) (while ~ cr is an is still Markov of order one): A new term appears in the optimal control rule.

2) and The error terms The reasons for discussed later. restricting rule t are taken as white noise processes. ourselves to this specification are It should be recalled here that, if ARMA(l,l) for instance, optimal u'Y as at or 'Y t are there would be some new components in the seen in Chapter 1. This would not change the discussion below. 12) defining the optimal control, is: - - - glqt + g2a t + g3'Y t - Substracting qt from both sides yields: , Renaming gl-l by gl, and assuming that the preceding equation is also true at time t-l.

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